Where these numbers come from
Figures used: CBN exchange rates (₦196.50 in May 2015, ₦1,330.78 on 17 September 2026); NBS petrol price (₦1,596, May 2026) and the regulated ₦87 of 2015; rice ₦8,500 (2015) and ₦60,000 (Lagos market, May 2026); ACLED deaths since June 2015 (59,468 to May 2023 and 42,918 from June 2023 to 11 September 2026, our sums); NERC grid collapses; UNICEF out-of-school children; Budget Office education shares; NMA and health ministry on doctors; Manufacturers Association on factory closures. Forecasts are our arithmetic: they assume the next four years move at the same average pace as the last eleven. They are a warning, not a certainty.
Every figure on this site comes from a named public source, checked in September 2026. Where we did the arithmetic ourselves, we say so.
